Value Area Low

The Value Area Low (VAL) is the lower edge of the Value Area: the lowest price at which the session remained within its 70% volume distribution. Prices below the VAL represent the bottom 15% of activity, where buyers stepped in and rejected lower prices.

VAL as a reference level

The VAL from the prior session is a critical support reference. It marks the bottom of established fair value: the point at which buyers previously determined price was cheap enough to buy aggressively.

Price approaching VAL from above: the market is testing the bottom of yesterday’s value. If the VAL holds, it confirms buyers are still willing to defend the lower boundary of fair value. Potential support and long setup.

Price breaking below VAL with rejection: price briefly violates the VAL but quickly recovers back inside the value area. Buyers defended the level. Often a strong long setup: the break below was a liquidity grab, not genuine acceptance of lower prices.

Price breaking below VAL with acceptance: price pushes below the VAL and holds. Sellers are in control, value is migrating lower. Bearish structural shift: short continuation setup.

Price opening below VAL: the overnight session has carried price below prior value. RTH must decide: accept the lower price (continue lower) or reject it (rally back into value area).

The 80% rule at the VAL

A widely referenced heuristic: if price opens above the VAL (inside the value area) and tests the VAL from above, there is approximately a 70–80% chance that price will trade up to at least the POC before the session ends. This probability makes VAL-to-POC a common trade structure for range-day scenarios.

VAL and liquidity

The VAL often sits just above a cluster of sell stops (long holders protecting positions near the value boundary). A probe below the VAL that triggers those stops, then reverses back inside, is a classic stop run at the value area low.